Joined
·
2,007 Posts
Ok, admittedly it's not absolutely essential, I just wanted to feel special...
During a recent 8th ed game, during my opponent's magic phase, it became apparent to me that some people have no idea when it comes to "dice probability". My opponent started to get confused as to how many PD & DD he should be using. Now I realize that there is no absolute "correct amount" of PD you should be using to cast a spell, it's a bit of a personal choice depending on how many PD you have to spare and how willing you are to risk the dreaded Miscasts of 8th ed.
I myself am pretty good when it comes to probability, statistics and mathematics in general. So to help out those of you who aren't Rain Man I've made a simple table to give a percentage representation of rolling chances with different amounts of PD/DD and the miscast chances. There are probably better guides out there, this is just a simple single page table. Also, I did these calculations mostly by hand/mental maths/patterns, so there may be some mistakes in there, particularly in the miscast chances (which I scribbled out in about 10 mins) and the 6D6 probabilities, which I had to rely on a mathematical pattern for. Hope it helps.
General Info:
Average Power Dice generation (Addition of 2D6) = 7 PD (+ n/6)
Average Dispel Dice generation (2D6, pick highest) = 161/36 = 4.47 DD (+ n/6)
(n = number of channelling wizards)
CVs: Cast Values.
MCs: Miscast Percentages.
[I've attached an MS doc version]
Here's the best I could do using forum text:
CVs _1D6 _2D6 __3D6 __4D6 _5D6 __6D6
03+ 66.7% 97.2% 100% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0%
04+ 50.0% 91.7% 99.5% 100% 00.0% 00.0%
05+ 33.3% 83.3% 98.1% 99.9% 100% 00.0%
06+ 16.7% 72.2% 95.4% 99.6% ~100% 100%
07+ 00.0% 58.3% 90.7% 98.8% 99.9% ~100%
08+ 00.0% 41.7% 83.8% 97.3% 99.7% ~100%
09+ 00.0% 27.8% 74.1% 94.6% 99.3% 99.9%
10+ 00.0% 16.7% 62.5% 90.3% 98.4% 99.8%
11+ 00.0% 08.3% 50.0% 84.1% 96.8% 99.5%
12+ 00.0% 02.8% 37.5% 76.1% 94.1% 99.0%
13+ 00.0% 00.0% 25.9% 66.4% 90.2% 98.0%
14+ 00.0% 00.0% 16.2% 55.6% 84.8% 96.4%
15+ 00.0% 00.0% 09.3% 44.4% 77.9% 93.9%
16+ 00.0% 00.0% 04.6% 33.6% 69.5% 90.4%
17+ 00.0% 00.0% 01.9% 23.9% 60.0% 85.5%
18+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.5% 15.9% 50.0% 79.4%
19+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 09.7% 40.0% 72.1%
20+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 05.4% 30.5% 63.7%
21+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 02.7% 22.1% 54.6%
22+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 01.2% 15.2% 45.4%
23+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.4% 09.8% 36.3%
24+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.1% 05.9% 27.9%
25+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 03.2% 20.6%
26+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 01.6% 14.5%
27+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.7% 09.6%
28+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.3% 06.1%
29+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.1% 03.6%
30+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% ~0.0% 02.0%
31+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 01.0%
32+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.5%
33+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.2%
34+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.1%
35+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% ~0.0%
36+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% ~0.0%
MCs 00.0% 02.8% 07.4% 13.2% 19.6% 26.3%
How The Table Works:
Find the spell you want to cast’s cast value, and then minus any caster bonuses you have from the cast value (Eg: Lvl 3 Vampire lord with skull staff attempting to cast Purple Sun; 15 – 4 = 11). Then basically look at that value on the table to compare the probability of the spell being successfully cast on different amounts of PD.
Dispelling is similar. Get your opponent’s modified roll value, minus any Dispell bonuses you have then consult the table.
Finally: If you see any mistakes or errors in the calculations or rules I've misread feel free to point them out, it's still a work in progress.
PS: Sorry for all the red text mods!
CRCL out!
During a recent 8th ed game, during my opponent's magic phase, it became apparent to me that some people have no idea when it comes to "dice probability". My opponent started to get confused as to how many PD & DD he should be using. Now I realize that there is no absolute "correct amount" of PD you should be using to cast a spell, it's a bit of a personal choice depending on how many PD you have to spare and how willing you are to risk the dreaded Miscasts of 8th ed.
I myself am pretty good when it comes to probability, statistics and mathematics in general. So to help out those of you who aren't Rain Man I've made a simple table to give a percentage representation of rolling chances with different amounts of PD/DD and the miscast chances. There are probably better guides out there, this is just a simple single page table. Also, I did these calculations mostly by hand/mental maths/patterns, so there may be some mistakes in there, particularly in the miscast chances (which I scribbled out in about 10 mins) and the 6D6 probabilities, which I had to rely on a mathematical pattern for. Hope it helps.
General Info:
Average Power Dice generation (Addition of 2D6) = 7 PD (+ n/6)
Average Dispel Dice generation (2D6, pick highest) = 161/36 = 4.47 DD (+ n/6)
(n = number of channelling wizards)
CVs: Cast Values.
MCs: Miscast Percentages.
[I've attached an MS doc version]
Here's the best I could do using forum text:
CVs _1D6 _2D6 __3D6 __4D6 _5D6 __6D6
03+ 66.7% 97.2% 100% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0%
04+ 50.0% 91.7% 99.5% 100% 00.0% 00.0%
05+ 33.3% 83.3% 98.1% 99.9% 100% 00.0%
06+ 16.7% 72.2% 95.4% 99.6% ~100% 100%
07+ 00.0% 58.3% 90.7% 98.8% 99.9% ~100%
08+ 00.0% 41.7% 83.8% 97.3% 99.7% ~100%
09+ 00.0% 27.8% 74.1% 94.6% 99.3% 99.9%
10+ 00.0% 16.7% 62.5% 90.3% 98.4% 99.8%
11+ 00.0% 08.3% 50.0% 84.1% 96.8% 99.5%
12+ 00.0% 02.8% 37.5% 76.1% 94.1% 99.0%
13+ 00.0% 00.0% 25.9% 66.4% 90.2% 98.0%
14+ 00.0% 00.0% 16.2% 55.6% 84.8% 96.4%
15+ 00.0% 00.0% 09.3% 44.4% 77.9% 93.9%
16+ 00.0% 00.0% 04.6% 33.6% 69.5% 90.4%
17+ 00.0% 00.0% 01.9% 23.9% 60.0% 85.5%
18+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.5% 15.9% 50.0% 79.4%
19+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 09.7% 40.0% 72.1%
20+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 05.4% 30.5% 63.7%
21+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 02.7% 22.1% 54.6%
22+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 01.2% 15.2% 45.4%
23+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.4% 09.8% 36.3%
24+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.1% 05.9% 27.9%
25+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 03.2% 20.6%
26+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 01.6% 14.5%
27+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.7% 09.6%
28+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.3% 06.1%
29+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.1% 03.6%
30+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% ~0.0% 02.0%
31+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 01.0%
32+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.5%
33+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.2%
34+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.1%
35+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% ~0.0%
36+ 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% 00.0% ~0.0%
MCs 00.0% 02.8% 07.4% 13.2% 19.6% 26.3%
How The Table Works:
Find the spell you want to cast’s cast value, and then minus any caster bonuses you have from the cast value (Eg: Lvl 3 Vampire lord with skull staff attempting to cast Purple Sun; 15 – 4 = 11). Then basically look at that value on the table to compare the probability of the spell being successfully cast on different amounts of PD.
Dispelling is similar. Get your opponent’s modified roll value, minus any Dispell bonuses you have then consult the table.
Finally: If you see any mistakes or errors in the calculations or rules I've misread feel free to point them out, it's still a work in progress.
PS: Sorry for all the red text mods!
CRCL out!