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Anyone using mathhammer should be beaten with a funmallet in my opinion
...But, I ENJOY calculating chances T_T

Frankly, people who assume the average will work is kidding themselves.
Plan for the worst, hope for the best, that's the way to play.
If something NEEDS to die, make damn sure it will; if it dies before you're done, good for you, shoot other things.
 

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*goes to fetch the mallet*
you were warned:biggrin:
Really, one time I calculated the exact chance that a SM Sergeant with a Power First would destroy a standard Defiler in CC, and I think he was charging in the hypothetical...

Anyway, it took me hours, and I'm pretty sure (can't quite remember) that the chance simplified to 1 in ~7, but I could be completely wrong in that memory...
There was definitely a ~7, it was 7.126 or something.

Yes, I enjoy calculating chances >_>
 

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Hmm well Deflier is WS 3 so each attack has 66% chance of hitting, Glances can't destroy it so we only care about pens, 33% chance of a pen. Of those pens only 5's or 6's can destroy it so again 33% chance. So roughly a 7% chance with each hit. With his 3 attacks on the Charge about 22% I would guess.

Aramoro
I also factored in the chance that the Defiler would kill him before he got to attack.
And I am absolutely certain that it was 1/~7 now.
 

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I'm afraid I don't understand your math. I'm not saying it's wrong, as it may very well be just over my head.

Why are you using ^? Shouldn't you just be using multiplication?

I mean, in the original example, if each bolter shot has a 17/18 chance of not killing the terminator, which translates into each shot having roughly (by my math) a 5.55% chance of killing the terminator. 5.55% * 18 shots = 100%, which is basically just saying that 1/18 * 18 = 1. I don't see what bringing it to the power of 18 proves.
No, you don't use multiplication.
To get the chance of, for example, two shots killing a Terminator, using the example chance of 10% per shot, you do:

10% chance for the first shot.
You get the remainder of the 100%, which is 90%, and then get 10% of that (the chance of the next shot doing it), which is 9% of the original 100%.
So you have a 19% chance of killing one Terminator with those two shots.

If you want the chance of killing two Terminators with two shots, you do the opposite.
You get the chance of killing one, 10%, and get 10% of that, which is 1% of 100%.
So a 1% chance of killing 2 Terminators with 2 shots.


If you have different chances, of for example 3 shots but you want the chance of killing 2 Terminators, it doesn't really matter how you order them.

It gets pretty complicated sometimes, but that's how I do it, the manual way :D
 

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While i agree that most people go by pure instinct, some peoples opinions of what unit X can do to unit Y could be completely different to what the actual odds are.

For example, you might charge a mob of 30 Boyz into a Trygon thinking that with 120 attacks and only a 3+ save you are bound to kill it.... only to be disappointed when all you manage to do is piss it off lol.
...Wow.
Just did the numbers, assuming a squad of Shoota Boys, and that the Trygon kill 3 of them before they attack.
They deal 2.3 wounds, roughly :S
 

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Maddermax, first of all you got their BS wrong :p
It's 3, not 4, so a 3/4 chance to hit per shot, not an 8/9.

And I officially ragequit, I need more maths to be able to do that sort of thing.
I was, being a bit of a perfectionist, going to try and calculate the chance for every possible outcome, which in hindsight is fucking stupid.
I mean really, just figuring out the chances of different number of hits got up to 4^9, WHICH IS 292,144!
 

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Calculating odds and averages seems a bit self-defeating to my thinking.

First it fails to take account of those times when the law of averages seems to go out the window. The number of times I've seen myself or an opponent rolling fives and sixes, to the point where someone jokes that the dice are loaded, makes a complete mockery of the idea that mathshammer can be a consistently useful tool.

Second, it takes the fun out of the game. As an Ork player I'm used to people scoffing at my shooting, then getting a shock when they realise that with Orks quantity is a quality all of it's own.

Finally as a great man once said sometimes you've just gotta to roll a hard six
That's a pretty naive point of view really.
It's not self-defeating to know approximately how your unit will perform against X other unit, it's a judgemental aid.
If you can say "If I charge that, I will, on average, kill it." then you're a damn sight more informed than just guessing.
 
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