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I see all this math hammmer......And it makes me laugh a little.......Math hammer is an epic fail. Theres a guy at our FLGS who never plays and just math hammers all night long, trying to prove people wrong and they should take this instead of this....crap like that.......Yet when he plays he gets stomped by even our B leaguers.......its sad....i have no respec for math hammer. You can roll crap out all day long and say this should happen......and this shouldnt happen......But people forget MUrphy's law....and it deffinatly applies to table top gaming.
 

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Mathhammer isnt a game, its a tool.. and dismissing it out of hand is like dismissing someone's experiences of past games- they might not always help them out, but in a game between 2 equal gamers the one with experience should win. Same if you have 2 gamers or equal skill, 1 of whom is implying a bit off mathhammer now and again.

In fact mathhammer and experience are pretty closely liniked. both let you predict what is likley to happen in your games. Mathhammer gives an unbiased view of the game, while experience gives more of an idea of the extreme possibilities (in math speak it shows the variation/deviation more clearly). So if you cause 6 wounds on my terminators mathhammer tells me that I should fail1 on average and that there's about a 1in3 chance of getting off scott free experience will tell me that Im likely to lose 1-2 models but could very well lose the whole unit.

The quote I like to remember is "one in a million chances occur nine times out of ten". Its from Terry Pratchet's discworld series but its actually very true. Interpreting that for a dice game- if you roll six dice you should on average have a single 1, a single 2 a single 3 etc as a result. But the chance of getting 1,2,3,4,5,6 is miniscule, even if it is the average result.
So while Mathhammer may tell me that a soul grinder is more survivable then a non-tzeentch daemon prince against everything other then ordnance and melta (against S8 or less the grinder is better then all DPs) it doesnt mean that its always going to survive longer. So the mathhammer is only realy helpful if coupled with experience- if I want something to reliably draw fire for a round or 2 then the daemon prince is better.. if I want something that can get into combat with a marine army and then be all but indestructible I'll take the soul grinder.
 

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Yeah, but then we're talking about daemon armies here... if you need something to go right then it'll simply mishap itself and blow up in your face, it never needs to actually touch the board :p

Then again there are only a few times when I use a bit of mathhammer over intuition at the tabletop- is it better to shot frag or krak missiles at that unit of marines? Is it better to stay here and rapid fire of to fire bolt pistols and charge? ... that sort of thing.
Its a handy tool to quickly be able to estimate the best course of action... then if luck frels it up thats just a part of the game. Its kind of like playing darts- if I'm aiming at the treble 20 while my friend always prefers the treble 18 I have an advantage... it doesnt mean I'll always come out ahead, but it'll help.
 
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