Likelyhood of Random Movement/Charge Distances - Wargaming Forum and Wargamer Forums
Warhammer Tactics Discuss the art of war in Warhammer Fantasy. Exceptional topics will be stickied.

 
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post #1 of 1 (permalink) Old 04-13-11, 05:15 PM Thread Starter
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Default Likelyhood of Random Movement/Charge Distances

All of the advice on charge ranges I found focused on the most likely result for a given situation, whereas I am usually interested (especially for longer distances) on how likely reaching is, so I decided to calculate the probability of achieving at least a given distance with the random portion. Whilst I enjoyed the exercise, to save anyone having to spend the time if they do not wish I set out my results below.

To use the tables simply subtract the unit's Movement from the total distance you hope to travel and look at the appropriate table.

TWO DICE

[table="head"]Distance |Straight %|Reroll %
2|100.00|100.00
3|97.22|99.92
4|91.66|99.30
5|83.33|97.22
6|72.22|92.28
7|58.33|82.63
8|41.66|65.97
9|27.77|47.83
10|16.66|30.55
11|8.33|15.97
12|2.77|5.47
[/table]

THREE DICE KEEP TWO HIGHEST

[table="head"]Distance |Straight %|Reroll %
2|100.00|100.00
3|99.53|99.99
4|97.68|99.94
5|95.37|99.78
6|89.81|98.96
7|81.01|96.39
8|68.51|90.08
9|52.77|77.70
10|36.11|59.18
11|20.37|36.59
12|7.40|15.12
[/table]

Obviously these figures are the same for other random moment distances.

Boring Maths Bit: the percentages are truncated rather than rounded so are technically pessimistic; however I do not think this makes a difference in real terms.
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