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post #21 of 43 (permalink) Old 10-04-11, 10:55 PM
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Im not angling at cool, nice models or awsesome fluff im angling at them being one of the best stratergies in the game.
I dont know what boards your playing on to allow grey hunters to both run away and circle around at the same time but when i place objectives there is a clear epicentre somewhere on the board where more than half of the objectives are. The player that controls that area at the end of the game wins.
If your space wolves are kiting the paladins who are occupying that area, how in gods name do you expect to cap those objectives.
You talk as if these paladins are piloted by some dumb ogre who only wants to smash things. The paladins dont need to even get into combat, in fact if the space wolves player is smart they never will with anything meaningfull.
But combat happens within 12" so that a 12" perimeter around the epicentre where the wolves cannot go lest they be engaged...
Now at last count the player controlling the epicentre wins the game which is the whole point here.
And dont say tank shock because if 3 psyfledreds havent killed all the rhinos then something went wrong.

Im not saying there arent ways to kill this army, im saying the things you need to do to kill this army will pretty much involve taloring a list which wont happen in tourneys because the list that kills the paladins loses horribly to the 150 boys army and nobody wants to go to a tourney with auto loss matchups.
Because very few if any armies can effectively kill you and you can kill the hell out of them, they have to run away which should mean you win if you play right.
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post #22 of 43 (permalink) Old 10-04-11, 11:28 PM
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Originally Posted by paddlepop lion View Post
Im not angling at cool, nice models or awsesome fluff im angling at them being one of the best stratergies in the game.
I dont know what boards your playing on to allow grey hunters to both run away and circle around at the same time but when i place objectives there is a clear epicentre somewhere on the board where more than half of the objectives are. The player that controls that area at the end of the game wins.
If your space wolves are kiting the paladins who are occupying that area, how in gods name do you expect to cap those objectives.
You talk as if these paladins are piloted by some dumb ogre who only wants to smash things. The paladins dont need to even get into combat, in fact if the space wolves player is smart they never will with anything meaningfull.
But combat happens within 12" so that a 12" perimeter around the epicentre where the wolves cannot go lest they be engaged...
Now at last count the player controlling the epicentre wins the game which is the whole point here.
And dont say tank shock because if 3 psyfledreds havent killed all the rhinos then something went wrong.

Im not saying there arent ways to kill this army, im saying the things you need to do to kill this army will pretty much involve taloring a list which wont happen in tourneys because the list that kills the paladins loses horribly to the 150 boys army and nobody wants to go to a tourney with auto loss matchups.
Because very few if any armies can effectively kill you and you can kill the hell out of them, they have to run away which should mean you win if you play right.
I saw the list you posted and it didn't contain 3 psyfledreads yet still you bring them as argument. Or have you changed it? Doesn't matter. You are dead set on the theoretic awesomeness of paladins, so be it. I don't argue with somebody this fond of his view. As I said: let's agree to disagree. You think a lumbering deathstar supported only by three dreads is able to easily knock out mobile MSU-spam armies and I don't. You think cover and psypowers always work in your favor but not in the opponent's and I don't. See, we can do that all the time.

I'll give you something to look at I just c&p from ytth. It's graded down from 2k but I think you'll get the point.


1 Rune Priest in Power Armour, 100 pts (Living Lightning; Tempest’s Wrath)

1 Wolf Guard Pack, 99 pts
1 Wolf Guard in Power Armour (Bolt Pistol; Bolter x1)
2 Wolf Guard in Power Armour (Bolt Pistol; Combi-Meltagun x1)
1 Rhino

1 Wolf Guard Pack, 99 pts
1 Wolf Guard in Power Armour (Bolt Pistol; Bolter x1)
2 Wolf Guard in Power Armour (Bolt Pistol; Combi-Meltagun x1)
1 Rhino

5 Grey Hunters Pack, 138 pts (Meltagun)
1 Wolf Guard in Power Armour (Bolt Pistol; Combi-Meltagun x1)
1 Rhino

5 Grey Hunters Pack, 138 pts (Meltagun)
1 Wolf Guard in Power Armour (Bolt Pistol; Combi-Meltagun x1)
1 Rhino

5 Grey Hunters Pack, 138 pts (Meltagun)
1 Wolf Guard in Power Armour (Bolt Pistol; Combi-Meltagun x1)
1 Rhino

5 Grey Hunters Pack, 138 pts (Meltagun)
1 Wolf Guard in Power Armour (Bolt Pistol; Combi-Meltagun x1)
1 Rhino

5 Grey Hunters Pack, 150 pts (Flamer)
1 Razorback (Lascannon and TL Plasmagun)

1 Land Speeder Squadron, 60 pts (Multi-melta x1)

1 Land Speeder Squadron, 60 pts (Multi-melta x1)

1 Land Speeder Squadron, 60 pts (Multi-melta x1)

4 Long Fangs Pack, 190 pts (Missile Launcher x4)
1 Squad Leader (Bolt Pistol; Close Combat Weapon)
1 Razorback (Lascannon and TL Plasmagun)

4 Long Fangs Pack, 190 pts (Missile Launcher x4)
1 Squad Leader (Bolt Pistol; Close Combat Weapon)
1 Razorback (Lascannon and TL Plasmagun)

4 Long Fangs Pack, 190 pts (Missile Launcher x4)
1 Squad Leader (Bolt Pistol; Close Combat Weapon)
1 Razorback (Lascannon and TL Plasmagun)

Total Roster Cost: 1750

And this is a true allcomers-list. I don't like Stelek and most of his stuff is just boring but then and again he brings up some marvels just like this list.

Last edited by Hellgore; 10-04-11 at 11:32 PM.
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post #23 of 43 (permalink) Old 10-05-11, 01:03 AM
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What list are you talking about?
I was referring to his list with a librarian.

Its not theoretical awesomness i play it and have actual experience with this and the examples i gave actually took cover into account so what, its really easy to get so good players should almost always have it. And sure i expected the psychic powers to go off theres a 91.6% chance of it working before they manage to get thier hood in range.

You dont have to agree that paladins are all im cracking them up to be, and im not saying there arent other armies that are awesome. Im just saying you shouldnt worry about power weapons and keeping them as a 10 man unit causes quite a ruccus which will win games on its own.
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post #24 of 43 (permalink) Old 10-05-11, 01:11 PM Thread Starter
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Keep it going!

This has gotten interesting

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post #25 of 43 (permalink) Old 10-05-11, 09:50 PM
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Like as a spectical of two idiots punching on or good things are being said you are getting something out of?
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post #26 of 43 (permalink) Old 10-05-11, 10:34 PM
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I have found your argument very interesting and will rep+ you both for giving m a great read and made me think of some cool lists (not just Gk)

Thanks again and im diffinately watching this thread
Durian

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post #27 of 43 (permalink) Old 10-05-11, 10:53 PM Thread Starter
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I have found your argument very interesting and will rep+ you both for giving m a great read and made me think of some cool lists (not just Gk)
So true, better than most tacticas

I must say the little debate has sparked my interest. I played around with some of the lists being presented against the draigowing, and after ALOT of mathhammer it seems to me that the draigowing does come out alive after a round of shooting from everything albeit with a few bruises. I was not factoring in the possibility of coversaves for the pallies as well as the fact that the player using the list would prob not fire all their weapons in the order that they were posted ie:

Long fangs with 4 ML
GH with melta + combi-melta
long fangs with 4 ML

With the above list I would start at the top and do each unit firing at the paladins and then saves. Then I would move to the next unit firing, so in this case I would do shooting for the long fangs and then move to the GH and then the other unit of long fangs.

I also did not factor in anything that wasn't AP 1 or 2 or S8+, this would obviously benefit the benefit the paladins to leave it out but I don't have the patience to factor this in aswell. I like to think it balances out since its quite unlikely that every single gun the enemy has will be able to fire at the paladins.

I wouldn't take my results to be concrete for 6 reasons:
1. I probably made a few mistakes
2. to many variables are left out (such as possible cover)
3. I only considered what would happen from a single round of shooting
4. left out puny weapons
5. I assumed that the enemy still had a full army
6. I assumed the Palladins were at full strength, and wouldnt run of a table edge
It's pretty late and I just finished a mammoth 6 hour study marathon so im not going to go through the processes of redoing the maths to post it for you, go do it yourself it's fun and you are probably better at maths than I am.

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post #28 of 43 (permalink) Old 10-06-11, 07:55 AM
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So true, better than most tacticas

I must say the little debate has sparked my interest. I played around with some of the lists being presented against the draigowing, and after ALOT of mathhammer it seems to me that the draigowing does come out alive after a round of shooting from everything albeit with a few bruises. I was not factoring in the possibility of coversaves for the pallies as well as the fact that the player using the list would prob not fire all their weapons in the order that they were posted ie:

Long fangs with 4 ML
GH with melta + combi-melta
long fangs with 4 ML

With the above list I would start at the top and do each unit firing at the paladins and then saves. Then I would move to the next unit firing, so in this case I would do shooting for the long fangs and then move to the GH and then the other unit of long fangs.

I also did not factor in anything that wasn't AP 1 or 2 or S8+, this would obviously benefit the benefit the paladins to leave it out but I don't have the patience to factor this in aswell. I like to think it balances out since its quite unlikely that every single gun the enemy has will be able to fire at the paladins.

I wouldn't take my results to be concrete for 6 reasons:
1. I probably made a few mistakes
2. to many variables are left out (such as possible cover)
3. I only considered what would happen from a single round of shooting
4. left out puny weapons
5. I assumed that the enemy still had a full army
6. I assumed the Palladins were at full strength, and wouldnt run of a table edge
It's pretty late and I just finished a mammoth 6 hour study marathon so im not going to go through the processes of redoing the maths to post it for you, go do it yourself it's fun and you are probably better at maths than I am.

That is where the problem with theorizing lies: In a game of dice you may calculate probabillities but you also have to consider dice averages. Say, you get hit by 4 missiles and you roll two sixes and two ones. That accounts two dead paladins but still shows an average result of 3.5 in dice rolling. And that's where reality kicks in for me. I can say that my games never had a non-average dice-result as a whole. But: I certainly had games where the results were spread really bad for me (rolling 1s and 2s when needing 3s and rolling 6s and 5s when needing 2s). That can always happen.

Now, when you must bear these results with 6 units you are vastly more dependent on them getting a good dice result distribution while with 14 units (rhinos not counted) you can compensate that better.

I'm pretty sure the deathstar will survive the first turn of shooting. And the SW will by no way remain unharmed but I'm equally sure that this list cannot win against it if both players are equally skilled at playing and the terrain is spread balancedly. The paladins and the tiny rest of the army lack the mobility and numbers to survive this kind of firepower while they themselves have very limited firepower - as much as I would like them to do better. While every unit a small count army loses is critical a MSU army doesn't suffer too much. And when these extremes meet then you have the problem that small count armies can only target a limited number of enemy units while the MSU army has the freedom to decide which unit fires on what. And SW even more considering their longfangs can split their fire. So for example, I declare to shoot at two of your dreads with one longfangsquad. That's two missiles each. If I'm really really lucky, that one salvo can take out both. The two dreads on the other have to shoot 4 ACs at say two LasPlas razors. They have more chance to take them out but: if you compare what I lose and you lose in relation to the overall firepower of the army and the overall numbers of units you will see that this is a losing battle for you. And even more: You had to use almost half of your army's firepower while I needed only a small fraction of it. See what I mean?
Mind you this was just an example, not a probabillity calculation.


5th edition is foremost a shooty edition and the days of deathstars are over. Maybe 6th next year will nerf vehicles a bit and give CC units a bit of their former power back but I wouldn't count on it.

I would love to see my paladin minis on the table in this kind of list being confident they were competitive. But against equally skilled players this kind of list should not win against an optimally balanced allcomers list.

Last edited by Hellgore; 10-06-11 at 07:58 AM.
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post #29 of 43 (permalink) Old 10-07-11, 01:43 PM
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You are doing statistics wrong.

Rolling 4 dice getting 2 6s and 2 1s is not average.
If you add up all the numbers and devide them by 4 then its 3.5 which is the middle of 6 but thats not average.
What you really rolled was 2 passes and 2 fails which is woefully below average.
You have a 16.6% / 1in6 chance to fail a terminator armour roll. So if you roll 6 dice the average is to roll 1 fail not 3.5.

Your 100% right about the long fangs splitting fire thing, you can capitalise on lucky rolls without losing anything extra from unlucky rolls. It also has alot of redundancy meaning things can die and its not a big deal.
This redundancy deadens the blow of bad rolling which is a sound concept which works. I 100% agree that the wolves army you posted is a good one and has a good idea behind it.


The paladins will not capatilise very much on a good few rolls because most of the guns in the army are fired in large volleys. On average the volley will kill something but if the first 3 shots would kill the rhino you cant shoot a different one with the rest of the shots, they are all fired at once.
There is also basically no redundancy in the paladin army, when something dies its a massive blow. The trade off is that the paladins dont die very easily bar bad rolling and will maintain full combat effectiveness till much later in the game which is something the wolves army cannont boast.
In a game of attrition the paladins will win for the simple reason that the paladins will maintain full power unitil they start dying while the wolves will lose things which reduce its power. Not saying either way is right or wrong, they both work and are both worth doing but they are different in this way.

The wolves army also cannot saturate anything with wounds.
Imagine there is a unit in front of you with a guy with say a melta that you want to kill and its a 10 strong unit of guys with power armour.
the most wounds that the wolves unit can feasibly apply is about 5 a a time.
Those wounds get allocated to non melta dudes and 3 saves are rolled.
The next unit deals its 5 wounds and the same thing happens ect ect and this has to happen 3-4 times before the melta guy even sees and armour save which is like 15-20 wounds, with a lucky roll or two this could easily be 30.
Now a purgation squad shoots at the same unit.
4 psycannons and a storm bolter deal 10 wounds to the unit and the melta guy has to take one. The melta guy, your target, now has a 33% chance to die.
This means that theres a 33% chance that the unit gets reduced to just chumps with bolters and the threat is gone so you dont have to wipeout the unit completely to neutralise the threat. This kind of firepower can capitalise on a good roll at the cost of not being able to split targets.

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5th edition is foremost a shooty edition and the days of deathstars are over. Maybe 6th next year will nerf vehicles a bit and give CC units a bit of their former power back but I wouldn't count on it.
I dont know what your basing this off. I have only playef 5th ed so i dont know what it used to be like but i cant see how you can justify that a deathstar unit doesnt work.
It clearly performs a function that you can form a solid game plan around in the ways that i have described.
Same thing applies to the shooting thing, i think that combat is definatley the most breakable part of the game. Sweeping advance, fearless saves, multi charges all allow you to actually wipeout large sections of the opponents force when you can make it work.
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post #30 of 43 (permalink) Old 10-07-11, 03:22 PM
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You are doing statistics wrong.

Rolling 4 dice getting 2 6s and 2 1s is not average.
If you add up all the numbers and devide them by 4 then its 3.5 which is the middle of 6 but thats not average.
What you really rolled was 2 passes and 2 fails which is woefully below average.
You have a 16.6% / 1in6 chance to fail a terminator armour roll. So if you roll 6 dice the average is to roll 1 fail not 3.5.

Your 100% right about the long fangs splitting fire thing, you can capitalise on lucky rolls without losing anything extra from unlucky rolls. It also has alot of redundancy meaning things can die and its not a big deal.
This redundancy deadens the blow of bad rolling which is a sound concept which works. I 100% agree that the wolves army you posted is a good one and has a good idea behind it.


The paladins will not capatilise very much on a good few rolls because most of the guns in the army are fired in large volleys. On average the volley will kill something but if the first 3 shots would kill the rhino you cant shoot a different one with the rest of the shots, they are all fired at once.
There is also basically no redundancy in the paladin army, when something dies its a massive blow. The trade off is that the paladins dont die very easily bar bad rolling and will maintain full combat effectiveness till much later in the game which is something the wolves army cannont boast.
In a game of attrition the paladins will win for the simple reason that the paladins will maintain full power unitil they start dying while the wolves will lose things which reduce its power. Not saying either way is right or wrong, they both work and are both worth doing but they are different in this way.

The wolves army also cannot saturate anything with wounds.
Imagine there is a unit in front of you with a guy with say a melta that you want to kill and its a 10 strong unit of guys with power armour.
the most wounds that the wolves unit can feasibly apply is about 5 a a time.
Those wounds get allocated to non melta dudes and 3 saves are rolled.
The next unit deals its 5 wounds and the same thing happens ect ect and this has to happen 3-4 times before the melta guy even sees and armour save which is like 15-20 wounds, with a lucky roll or two this could easily be 30.
Now a purgation squad shoots at the same unit.
4 psycannons and a storm bolter deal 10 wounds to the unit and the melta guy has to take one. The melta guy, your target, now has a 33% chance to die.
This means that theres a 33% chance that the unit gets reduced to just chumps with bolters and the threat is gone so you dont have to wipeout the unit completely to neutralise the threat. This kind of firepower can capitalise on a good roll at the cost of not being able to split targets.



I dont know what your basing this off. I have only playef 5th ed so i dont know what it used to be like but i cant see how you can justify that a deathstar unit doesnt work.
It clearly performs a function that you can form a solid game plan around in the ways that i have described.
Same thing applies to the shooting thing, i think that combat is definatley the most breakable part of the game. Sweeping advance, fearless saves, multi charges all allow you to actually wipeout large sections of the opponents force when you can make it work.

I already wondered... ;)

3.5 is of course also the average of rolls with a d6 statistically. And that's what I said. The probabillity of events (fail/success) is what you calculate, but that doesn't mean that you can leave out the inherent statistic of dice rolling itself. Each number has the same probabillity to show up. But as I already said: theoryhammer won't bring you victory, it just can help you to estimate the most likely result that should show up. You try to impose that on me again, but I think I made my point already clear that I don't give that much on this way of evaluating the competitiveness of an armylist.

In 4th ed vehicles were deathtraps for transported troops (automatic entanglement and so on) and you could destroy one with a glancing hit. Vanished.
Winning units could consolidate into nearby enemy units and initiate a new close combat without standing in the open for one turn. Vanished. The mechanisms of CC as a whole were quite different to how they work in 5th. And cover was much harder to get.

That is why tyranids and orks suffered dearly as their priority lay on being in cc as long as possible.

GK can field the most potent deathstar with those pallies I don't deny that.

But I remain on the point of view that it is not too hard to outmaneuver a single deathstar of that size and feed him with the necessary baits he can't just ignore. I'm sure that a player as equally skilled as you and on a board with balanced terrain will beat your pally-list most of the time with the above mentioned list.

If your battleplan is build around the deathstar it should not be hard for a skilled player to disrupt this plan as you have nothing to fall back on - note: should, it always can be hard and it surely can be going totally your way, whatever the dice say.
I've been playing 40k for more than ten years now and I came across actually good players that tried to play their deathstar-army with this kind of theorizing during building it. But they almost always failed to make theory match gaming reality. No deathstar army ever won a tournament I played in (which are about four to five a year since my entry into this game) and even the most WAAC-players I know never fielded deathstars of this kind. They lack flexibility, mobility, tactical possibilities and seldomly can recover when the initial plan doesn't work out.

In my experience clinging too much on probabilities and on "this should not have happened" is the first step to losing the battle. But hey, each player should have his own style of play. I expect that you will continue to fervently defend the paladin-deathstar as you don't seem to accept arguments outside of perecentages and probabilities. What else can I say? Your experience differs obviously from mine in that so far no opponent came across you with the kind of list above and the skill to use it apropriately. Maybe that will never happen and in this case: yes, the pally-deathstar is unbeatable in your gaming environment. But maybe you'll get to know a player that beats you time and again, no matter how you try to adopt your tactic but not your list. Maybe then you will see my point and give it some value.

But it is sure nice debating in such a civilized manner with you. Doesn't happen too often in the internet

Last edited by Hellgore; 10-07-11 at 03:26 PM.
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