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post #1 of 7 (permalink) Old 03-18-09, 04:38 PM Thread Starter
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Default What are the chances? - A look at 40K

Not sure if anyone has looked at this before, but I was interested to find out so had a little look.

A quick background:
I play Imperials and my lad plays Space Marines. Always seems to me that the SM rip apart IG so much easier that IG rip SM, so I thought I would take a dig into the maths. I promise to keep the maths simple.

Simple scenario:
A SM shoots an IG with a bolter at long ranger and the IG is not in cover. A SM has BS 4 so needs a 3+ to hit (4 in 6 chance of hitting (4/6) or 67%). If the SM hits he then needs a 3+ to wound as the IG has toughness 3. Again 4 in 6 chance of wounding or 67%. The IG does not get a save against a bolter so the chance of a SM killing an IG is (4/6 * 4/6 * 100) or 44% chance of a kill.

When I worked it the other way around it did not look so jot for the IG.
A IG shoots a SM with a Las Gun, again at long range and SM not in cover. A IG has BS of 3 so needs a 4+ to hit ( 3 in 6 chance of hitting (3/6) or 50%). If the IG hits the SM he needs a 5+ to wound as a Las Gun is S 3 and the SM is T 4 (2 in 6 chance of wounding (2/6) or 33% chance). If the IG manages to wound the SM gets a 3+ armour save (4 in 6 (4/6) or 67% of saving). So the actual chance of an IG wounding the SM is (3/6 * 2/6 * 4/6 * 100) or 6% chance of a kill!

This is just some basic maths that I worked out, will work out how much better Twin Linked weapons are when I get time. Someone please correct me if I am wrong as it does not make for good reading. In case anyone is wondering, it works out you need 7 IG to have as much chance of a kill a 1 SM.

Let me know what you think.....

Last edited by Venderland101st; 03-18-09 at 05:07 PM.
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post #2 of 7 (permalink) Old 03-18-09, 04:57 PM
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I like this, gives a good perspective on the game working out the maths behind it.

Kinda shows the training between a gm space marine and a normal unmodified human.
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post #3 of 7 (permalink) Old 03-18-09, 05:46 PM
 
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It makes sense.
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post #4 of 7 (permalink) Old 03-18-09, 05:48 PM
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Yes that is true, but a leman russ can easily make its points back against space marines easy. And if you work out the maths for two to three squads of guardsmen vs a squad of SMs (about points I think) I bet things might come out diferently. Guardsmen with massed shots might pull the if we roll enughf sixes scenario and even out the odds.

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post #5 of 7 (permalink) Old 03-18-09, 05:59 PM
 
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Sounds about right to me. Almost fluff-wise right too... hmmm. But yeah, you see the difference points wise, especially if the 4 points per guardsman rule becomes a reality and not a rumor in May.
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post #6 of 7 (permalink) Old 03-18-09, 06:06 PM
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Check out my 'Method 216' it's a lot easier to calculate than what you did here, instructions are on my blog here http://mathhammer.blogspot.com/2009/...ethod-216.html

As for twin linked.
P(h) = probability of hitting
~P(h) = probability of NOT hitting i.e. [ 1 - P(h) ]
1 - power(1 - P(h), 2) = chance of hitting using twin linked

so for example twin linked that needs a 3+ to hit looks like this

1 - power(1 - 0.67, 2) = 0.89

Last edited by NecronCowboy; 03-18-09 at 06:11 PM.
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post #7 of 7 (permalink) Old 03-18-09, 06:09 PM
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Also you have to look at most IG infantry are going to be in cover reducing the SM expectancy to 0.22 from 0.44, and the IG model costs 1/3 that of a SP, so that bumps up the IG expectancy to 0.17.
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