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post #3 of (permalink) Old 11-09-12, 08:48 AM
Mossy Toes
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I've heard a lot of back and forth about LC vs PW, so let's crunch the numbers, shall we? Assuming MEQ to be the standard opponent, let's start there.

Average Berzerker attack results with LC and PW against SM-equivalent stats.

Getting the assault, w/ Rage & Furious Charge:
PW - 5 attacks, (2/3 hit) 3.33 hits, (2/3 wound) 2.20 unsaved wounds
LC - 4 attacks, (2/3 hit) 2.67 hits, (8/9 wound) 2.37 unsaved wounds

Getting assaulted, w/ Counter-Attack:
PW - 4 attacks, (2/3 hit) 2.67 hits, (1/2 wound) 1.34 unsaved wounds.
LC - 3 attacks, (2/3 hit) 2 hits, (3/4 wound) 1.5 unsaved wounds.

Non-assault fight rounds:
PW - 3 attacks, (2/3 hit) 2 hits, (1/2 wound) 1 unsaved wound.
LC - 2 attacks, (2/3 hit) 1.33 hit, (3/4 wound) 1 unsaved wound (.9975 unsaved wounds, really, but I've been rounding to 2 significant digits this whole time--why stop now?).

Data Analysis:
- The advantage of a power sword against MEQ is that on a non-assault round, you inflict an average of .0025 more wounds.
- The advantage of a lightning claw is that when assaulting, you inflict an average of .17 more unsaved wounds and when assaulted inflict an average of .16 more unsaved wounds. Now, I would expect that the result in the second case should drop a little more than that for a whole attack less, so I suspect the rounding errors are large here. Nonetheless...

We may conclude that against MEQ opponents, the lightning claw performs reliably better.

Projections for Other Scenarios
Against low-Toughness armies wearing AP3 or higher armor, the rerolls are less likely to be triggered, and so we would expect the power sword to gain roughly parity or a slight edge. Against monstrous creatures and other high-Toughness creatures, we would expect the rerolls to be triggered for many more attacks, so the lightning claw would gain a large advantage.

TL;DR
Keep the lightning claw.

CSM Plog, Tactica

What sphinx of plascrete and adamantium bashed open their skulls and ate up their brains and imagination? Imperator! Imperator!

Last edited by Mossy Toes; 11-09-12 at 08:55 AM.
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