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post #1 of 22 (permalink) Old 07-16-16, 09:54 AM Thread Starter
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Default Thoughts on "First Rank Fire, Second Rank Fire"

So I was thinking about FRFSRF and how I would possibly homebrew "fix" it, not that itself is bad, but I just felt to make the idea of massed infantry fire of the Imperial Guard...I personally find that it's a little lacking.

*Note the following requires one to have excel*
**NOTE The following involves MathHammer, which we all know isn't dice**

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Edit: There Was an error in this document - look for the one a few posts below, it has been removed here to avoid any potential issues.


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In general the idea of FRFSRF is that it adds a single additional die per lasgun (or hot-shot lasgun) to the pool.

However this is simply the most inefficient way for Guardsmen to wound Space Marines or Orks, as for generic Guardsmen (which are probably the most likely to be seen using FRFSRF since blob squads). They only net a single wound against something Tough 4 once out of every ten shots**.

So going from 9 shots to 18 shots (since laspistols do not count) only nets a single additional shot at max (again with Mathhammer) and that's assuming that you do not have range to rapid fire by default OR you do not have any heavy/special weapons in the squads (Your guardsmen, of course you have these things)

I have also broken up the spreadsheet by the differing ballistic skill of the various guardsmen (conscripts @ BS2, guardsmen @ BS3, veterans @ BS4)

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I've learned that FRFSRF as it is now, is not really as useful order, if the order was to be buffed one way or another I would simply choose for the rerolls to wound/shred (and I would just make it any las weapon, so pistols will now help more), while it is not as powerful as simply allowing las weapons to be twin-linked and/or shred.

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In short the most effectient way to cause wounds is

1) Modify dice via Reroll to hit & reroll to wound ~ 50% wound rate)

2) Modify dice via Rerolls to hit only - shockingly this is better than only allowing rerolls to wound ~ 40% wound rate

3) Modify dice via Rerolls to Wound only ~ 20% wound rate

4)no modifiers at all ~ 10% wound rate

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Last edited by Fallen; 07-21-16 at 03:34 AM.
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post #2 of 22 (permalink) Old 07-16-16, 11:04 AM
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i can understand this. also, allowing a simple reroll would be much better for playability: more output, less dices.
that would be a nice fix.

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post #3 of 22 (permalink) Old 07-16-16, 02:49 PM
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Interesting theories on FRFSRF! It would be cool to see orders revisited in a new Codex.

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Originally Posted by Fallen View Post
In short the most efficient way to cause wounds is

1) Modify dice via Reroll to hit & reroll to wound ~ 50% wound rate)

2) Modify dice via Rerolls to hit only - shockingly this is better than only allowing rerolls to wound ~ 40% wound rate

3) Modify dice via Rerolls to Wound only ~ 20% wound rate

4)no modifiers at all ~ 10% wound rate
Why did you exclude the FRFSRF effects on whatever sample squad size you've chosen for these numbers? It's cool that there's all these potentials for an increase in weapon effectiveness but it would be great to know, as simply as it's put here without staring at a spreadsheet, what the current per cent bonus for the Order is.

Unfortunately Canada got rid of the penny and now my two cents rounds down to zero, so...take it for what you will.

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Last edited by ntaw; 07-16-16 at 03:14 PM.
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post #4 of 22 (permalink) Old 07-17-16, 02:27 PM Thread Starter
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@ntaw I simply went from from 1-150 shots (as I think a conscript squad can be 100 models so if it got FRFSRF and was in rapid fire range it would be 150 shots.

for the percentage states I simply just choose the result for 10.

If we're going to go with 5 blob squads (so 45 guys with lasguns - lets assume that no heavy/special weapons are in to mess with numbers.) All numbers are rounded down.

45 shots, 22 hit, 7 wounds 7/45 = 16% no modifiers

45 shots, 22 hit, reroll missed to hits, total hits = 33, 18 wounds. 40% with Reroll TO HIT modifier

45 shots 22 hit, 7 wounds, reroll missed to wounds, total = 12 wounds. 12/45 =~27%

45 shots, 22 hit, reroll missed to hits, total hits = 33, 18 wounds, reroll missed to wounds, total = 23 wounds. 23/45 =~51%

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THe simple math is

Shots (S) * 1/2 = Hits (H)

H* 1/3 = Wounds (W) (as we are targeting Orks/Space Marines here)

So in general its W = ((S*1/2)*1/3)

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Amounts of hits with rerolls to hit is simply the the above step with with a little wrinkle added in. the below is total wounds with a reroll to wound.

H+((S-H)*(1/2))=TotalHitswithReroll

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W+((H-W)*(1/3))=TWwR

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Heres a PDF - the excel I think is a little easier to read which is why I left a link to it via dropbox (at least in theory I did)
Attached Files
File Type: pdf Guardsmen Math.pdf (129.0 KB, 0 views)

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post #5 of 22 (permalink) Old 07-17-16, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fallen View Post
45 shots, 22 hit, 7 wounds 7/45 = 16% no modifiers

45 shots, 22 hit, reroll missed to hits, total hits = 33, 18 wounds. 40% with Reroll TO HIT modifier

45 shots 22 hit, 7 wounds, reroll missed to wounds, total = 12 wounds. 12/45 =~27%

45 shots, 22 hit, reroll missed to hits, total hits = 33, 18 wounds, reroll missed to wounds, total = 23 wounds. 23/45 =~51%
I guess it's hard for me to understand what this all really means when it isn't compared to what you have a problem with: one extra shot for each gun with no modifiers. What's the percent to-wound of 90 unmodified shots compared to these examples you've given?

Unfortunately Canada got rid of the penny and now my two cents rounds down to zero, so...take it for what you will.

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post #6 of 22 (permalink) Old 07-17-16, 07:21 PM Thread Starter
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the probability to wound with 90 shots.

with no modifiers -aka just rolling to hit, then rolling to wound.

BS3 guardsmen hit 50% of the time.

90 2 = 45

being Strength 3 vs Tough 4 requires 5's to hit - so 1/3 of a die can cause wounds.

45 hits x 1/3 = 15 wounds.

probability is 15 wounds per 90 shots = ~17% (to be precise it is 16.67%)

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The probability varies from amount to amount and should probably be read more like "success rates" for causing a wound.

Since for Veteran Guardsmen it raises to 20 projected wounds ~22% (I'm rounding which is why I am using the tilde key "~" to express the approximation)
and lowers for conscripts to just 10 wounds, for ~11%

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If you would look at either the PDF (first row page 3) or excel file that I have provided for everyone, however i shall post below what the total wounds for 90 shots are as follows for BS 3 guardsmen;

Total wounds without modifiers = 15

Total wounds with rerolls to hit modifier = 37

Total wounds with rerolls to wound modifier = 25

Total wounds with rerolls to hit & to wound modifier = 47

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The thoughts that I had when initially created this was after I was just rolling a bunch of dice with seeing the "result" from me issuing FRFSRF to my guardsmen in theory while I waited to play games/bored at home and waiting for my crap internet to connect. The second part of it was "is adding an extra shot really good? I think I might rather just be able to reroll wounds...*rolls dice*...I wonder about rerolls to hit...*more dice rolls*...maybe both?

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post #7 of 22 (permalink) Old 07-17-16, 10:24 PM
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OK so I've finally broken down and looked at your spreadsheet, which I am wholeheartedly disappointed in (looking at it, not you creating it). By your math:

90 lasgun shots (45 lasguns with FRFSRF issued): 15 wounds
those same 45 lasguns with re-rolls to-hit: 18 wounds
again with re-rolls to-wound: 12 wounds
with both re-rolls to-hit and to-wound: 23 wounds

So basically FRFSRF is better than shred in this example and worse than twin-linked. Overall re-rolling everything is best (which should be no surprise).

A most specific example for my 30 man Guard blob, which has a power axe sergeant and flamer for every 10 models, would be 24 lasguns shooting:

48 shots with FRFSRF: 8 wounds
24 shots twin-linked: 10 wounds
24 shots with shred: 6 wounds
24 shots with all the re-rolls: 12 wounds

Ah, consistency. Knowing now that FRFSRF sits pretty much exactly in between twin-linked and shred (yeah, got sick of typing re-rolls to-hit and to-wound respectively) I seriously doubt it will change with a reissue of the Codex and have no real issue with the rule the way it is. I have enjoyed this exercise though.

Do I have this way wrong? It's what I've been failing at asking for/saying the whole time.

Unfortunately Canada got rid of the penny and now my two cents rounds down to zero, so...take it for what you will.

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post #8 of 22 (permalink) Old 07-17-16, 11:19 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntaw View Post
So basically FRFSRF is better than shred in this example and worse than twin-linked. Overall re-rolling everything is best (which should be no surprise).

A most specific example for my 30 man Guard blob, which has a power axe sergeant and flamer for every 10 models, would be 24 lasguns shooting:

48 shots with FRFSRF: 8 wounds Shouldn't this be 34 shots? I'm going to assume that was a mistype.
24 shots twin-linked: 10 wounds
24 shots with shred: 6 wounds
24 shots with all the re-rolls: 12 wounds

Ah, consistency. Knowing now that FRFSRF sits pretty much exactly in between twin-linked and shred (yeah, got sick of typing re-rolls to-hit and to-wound respectively) I seriously doubt it will change with a reissue of the Codex and have no real issue with the rule the way it is. I have enjoyed this exercise though.

Do I have this way wrong? It's what I've been failing at asking for/saying the whole time.
OH that's what you were asking? I feel like an idiot now, I was so confused with your earlier line of questioning; going like "Why does he want to know about the number of shots?

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I'll be honest because I haven't spent that much time comparing different unit strengths - I was initially way more interested in what was the effectiveness of having rerolls.

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so for a 30man blob squad that has 24 lasguns.

34 shots - non rapid fire FRFSRF (as FRFSRF only grants 1 extra shot per gun) - 17 hits, 5.7 wounds, rounding down to 5 wounds.

58 shots - rapid fire (24 x 2 = 48 + 10 = 58) FRFSRF, 29 hits, 9 wounds

The 24 shot-hit-wound line was 4, 10, 6 and 12 wounds as you had mentioned earlier

The 48 shot-hit-wound line (aka just generic rapid fire) was 8, 20, 13, 25.

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Hopefully that helps yourself and everyone else - I learned something new in that I can compare unit size differences; which I will admit wasn't something that I was thinking about. I was not thinking tactically about unit sizes and changing tactics that way.

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@ntaw
Quote:
Why did you exclude the FRFSRF effects on whatever sample squad size you've chosen for these numbers? It's cool that there's all these potentials for an increase in weapon effectiveness but it would be great to know, as simply as it's put here without staring at a spreadsheet, what the current per cent bonus for the Order is.
I initially didn't "add" the effect of FRFSRF to the list was because to me it was just another number already on the sheet - if I wanted to find "Y" which was "X+10" I would just find "Y" - I didn't necessarially need to have extra rows on the spreadsheet (and do more goddamn math than needed), as I went to the max output possible of 150 (yes that would be conscripts @ bs2 rapid firing but still)

Quote:
Originally Posted by neilbatte
if you squint the Sigmar stuff doesn't all look like the love children from a Necron and Blood Angel orgy.

Last edited by Fallen; 07-17-16 at 11:29 PM.
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post #9 of 22 (permalink) Old 07-18-16, 12:04 AM
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You have me befuddled my friend. Why do you think 24 lasguns is only 34 shots with FRFSRF?

Quote:
The ordered unit must make a shooting attack. When resolving this shooting attack, all models firing with lasguns or hot-shot lasguns fire one additional shot.
24 lasguns firing two shots each is 48 shots. If they were rapid firing it would be 72.

Unfortunately Canada got rid of the penny and now my two cents rounds down to zero, so...take it for what you will.

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Last edited by ntaw; 07-18-16 at 12:07 AM.
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post #10 of 22 (permalink) Old 07-18-16, 12:49 AM Thread Starter
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Ignore everything that I say right now....




Quote:
Originally Posted by neilbatte
if you squint the Sigmar stuff doesn't all look like the love children from a Necron and Blood Angel orgy.
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